The challenge: Humans make buying decisions, not machines.
But you can apply structure to make your forecast more accurate.
Three Questions That Matter
Focus on these when judging your pipeline:
- What is the customer’s buying process?
(Assume they don’t fully know it themselves)
People make decisions only when they have to. A company’s process is often more extensive than any single sponsor anticipates.
Most corporations operate under “control” management philosophy—process is king.
Your champion might think they can buy in 30 days. The actual process? 90 days with four approval layers they forgot about.
- How well does this opportunity fit your qualification criteria?
Use whatever framework you prefer (BANT, MEDDPIC, etc.).
Think of #1 and #2 as a matrix:
- X-axis: Customer buying process
- Y-axis: Your qualification criteria
Where the opportunity sits on this matrix tells you forecast accuracy.
- Why should they buy NOW?
This is where most forecasts fall apart. Ask with skepticism:
- a) Why shouldn’t purchasing delay this three months?
Real story: A purchasing manager at a multinational bank told me his department was instructed to hold P.O.s for at least a quarter beyond what was requested. Their goal? Maximize cash flow.
They delayed deals until things escalated.
- b) What happens if they don’t buy now? Can they live with that? For how long?
If the answer is “nothing catastrophic” or “indefinitely”—your deal is at risk.
The Skepticism Test
Your champion says: “We need this urgently.”
Your job: Validate whether:
- Their company’s process supports their timeline
- Real consequences exist for not buying now
- Purchasing has incentive to approve vs. delay
Without urgency grounded in business reality, your forecast is wishful thinking.
Bottom Line
Accurate forecasting requires understanding:
- The full buying process (not just what your contact thinks)
- How well qualified the opportunity actually is
- Whether real urgency exists (or if it’s manufactured)
Apply skepticism to #3. It’ll save you from bad forecast calls.